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• Numerical_weather_prediction abstract "Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.".
• Numerical_weather_prediction thumbnail AtmosphericModelSchematic.png?width=300.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageExternalLink weather-forecasting.
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• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageExternalLink www.ecmwf.int.
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• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Advection.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Aerosol.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Air_pollution.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Arithmetic_mean.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Atmosphere.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Atmosphere_of_Earth.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Atmospheric_model.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Atmospheric_physics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Atmospheric_thermodynamics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Boundary_value_problem.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Bred_vector.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Carl-Gustaf_Rossby.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Category:Climate_modeling.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Category:Computational_science.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Category:Mathematical_science_occupations.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Category:Numerical_climate_and_weather_models.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Category:Weather_prediction.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Cecil_Leith.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Cellulose.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Chaos_theory.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Charring.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Chemical_kinetics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Chemical_transformation.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Climate.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Climate_change.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Climate_model.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Cloud.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Cloud_fraction.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Cloud_physics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Combustion.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Computational_fluid_dynamics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Computer_simulation.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Convection.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Correlation_and_dependence.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Cumulus_cloud.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Data_assimilation.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Density.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Dependent_and_independent_variables.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Deposition_(aerosol_physics).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Diffusion.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Direct_numerical_simulation.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Domain_of_a_function.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Drag_(physics).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink ENIAC.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Edward_Epstein_(meteorologist).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Edward_Norton_Lorenz.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Elevation.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Ensemble_(fluid_mechanics).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Ensemble_forecasting.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Entrainment_(meteorology).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Environment_and_Climate_Change_Canada.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Environmental_Modeling_Center.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Feedback.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Finite_difference_method.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Fluid.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Fluid_dynamics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Forcing_function_(differential_equations).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Forecast_skill.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink General_Circulation_Model.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Geophysical_Fluid_Dynamics_Laboratory.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Geopotential_height.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Global_Environmental_Multiscale_Model.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Global_Forecast_System.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Greenhouse_effect.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Heat_transfer.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink History_of_numerical_weather_prediction.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Ideal_gas_law.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Initial_value_problem.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Integrated_Forecast_System.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Inversion_(meteorology).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Kalman_filter.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Kirk_Bryan_(oceanographer).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Lapse_rate.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Lee_wave.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Lewis_Fry_Richardson.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Liouvilles_theorem_(Hamiltonian).
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Los_Alamos_National_Laboratory.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink METAR.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Mathematical_model.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Met_Office.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Meteogram.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Meteorology.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Model_output_statistics.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Moist_processes.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink Monte_Carlo_method.
• Numerical_weather_prediction wikiPageWikiLink National_Centers_for_Environmental_Prediction.

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