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- Sure-thing_principle abstract "In decision theory, the sure-thing principle states that sure things—outcomes which occur regardless of which actions are chosen—should not affect one’s preferences.The principle was coined by L.J. Savage:A businessman contemplates buying a certain piece of property. He considers the outcome of the next presidential election relevant. So, to clarify the matter to himself, he asks whether he would buy if he knew that the Democratic candidate were going to win, and decides that he would. Similarly, he considers whether he would buy if he knew that the Republican candidate were going to win, and again finds that he would. Seeing that he would buy in either event, he decides that he should buy, even though he does not know which event obtains, or will obtain, as we would ordinarily say. It is all too seldom that a decision can be arrived at on the basis of this principle, but except possibly for the assumption of simple ordering, I know of no other extralogical principle governing decisions that finds such ready acceptance.He formulated the principle as a dominance principle, but it can also be framed probabilistically.The principle is closely related to independence of irrelevant alternatives, and equivalent under the axiom of truth (everything the agent knows is true). It is similarly targeted by the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes, in which actual people's choices seem to violate this principle. Furthermore, Simpson's paradox relates to cases where a naive attempt to apply the sure-thing principle would give the wrong answer.".
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- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageLength "2355".
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageOutDegree "10".
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageRevisionID "674759476".
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Allais_paradox.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Category:Decision_theory.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Category:Principles.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Decision_theory.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Ellsberg_paradox.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Independence_of_irrelevant_alternatives.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Leonard_Jimmie_Savage.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Preference.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Preferences.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Simpsons_paradox.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLink Strategic_dominance.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLinkText "Sure-thing principle".
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageWikiLinkText "sure-thing principle".
- Sure-thing_principle hasPhotoCollection Sure-thing_principle.
- Sure-thing_principle source "p. 21".
- Sure-thing_principle text "A businessman contemplates buying a certain piece of property. He considers the outcome of the next presidential election relevant. So, to clarify the matter to himself, he asks whether he would buy if he knew that the Democratic candidate were going to win, and decides that he would. Similarly, he considers whether he would buy if he knew that the Republican candidate were going to win, and again finds that he would. Seeing that he would buy in either event, he decides that he should buy, even though he does not know which event obtains, or will obtain, as we would ordinarily say. It is all too seldom that a decision can be arrived at on the basis of this principle, but except possibly for the assumption of simple ordering, I know of no other extralogical principle governing decisions that finds such ready acceptance.".
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageUsesTemplate Template:Quote.
- Sure-thing_principle wikiPageUsesTemplate Template:Reflist.
- Sure-thing_principle subject Category:Decision_theory.
- Sure-thing_principle subject Category:Principles.
- Sure-thing_principle comment "In decision theory, the sure-thing principle states that sure things—outcomes which occur regardless of which actions are chosen—should not affect one’s preferences.The principle was coined by L.J. Savage:A businessman contemplates buying a certain piece of property. He considers the outcome of the next presidential election relevant. So, to clarify the matter to himself, he asks whether he would buy if he knew that the Democratic candidate were going to win, and decides that he would.".
- Sure-thing_principle label "Sure-thing principle".
- Sure-thing_principle sameAs m.0x1t7n6.
- Sure-thing_principle sameAs Q17126300.
- Sure-thing_principle sameAs Q17126300.
- Sure-thing_principle wasDerivedFrom Sure-thing_principle?oldid=674759476.
- Sure-thing_principle isPrimaryTopicOf Sure-thing_principle.