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- Conservatism_(belief_revision) abstract "In cognitive psychology and decision science, conservatism or conservatism bias is a bias in human information processing. This bias describes human belief revision in which persons over-weigh the prior distribution (base rate) and under-weigh new sample evidence when compared to Bayesian belief-revision.According to the theory, "opinion change is very orderly, and usually proportional to the numbers of Bayes' Theorem - but it is insufficient in amount". In other words, persons update their prior beliefs as new evidence becomes observed, but they do so more slowly than they would if they used Bayes' theorem. This bias was discussed by Ward Edwards in 1968, who reported on experiments like the following one:There are two bookbags, one containing 700 red and 300 blue chips, the other containing 300 red and 700 blue. Take one of the bags. Now, you sample, randomly, with replacement after each chip. In 12 samples, you get 8 reds and 4 blues. what is the probability that this is the predominantly red bag?Most subjects chose an answer around .7. The correct answer according to Bayes' Theorem is closer to .97. Edwards suggested that people updated beliefs conservatively, in accordance with Bayes' Theorem more slowly. They updated from .5 incorrectly according to an observed bias in several experiments.".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageID "34980746".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageLength "3881".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageOutDegree "20".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageRevisionID "668939885".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Base_rate.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Base_rate_fallacy.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Bayes_Theorem.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Bayes_theorem.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Belief_revision.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Category:Bayesian_inference.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Category:Belief_revision.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Category:Cognitive_biases.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Category:Cognitive_inertia.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Category:Error.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Category:Ignorance.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Cognitive_bias.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Cognitive_psychology.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Decision_science.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Decision_theory.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Dividend.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Information-theoretic.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Information_theory.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Prior_distribution.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Prior_probability.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Sample_(statistics).
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Statistical_sample.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Stock_split.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLink Ward_Edwards.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLinkText "Conservatism (belief revision)".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageWikiLinkText "belief revision".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) hasPhotoCollection Conservatism_(belief_revision).
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageUsesTemplate Template:Primary_sources.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wikiPageUsesTemplate Template:Reflist.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) subject Category:Bayesian_inference.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) subject Category:Belief_revision.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) subject Category:Cognitive_biases.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) subject Category:Cognitive_inertia.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) subject Category:Error.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) subject Category:Ignorance.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) hypernym Bias.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) comment "In cognitive psychology and decision science, conservatism or conservatism bias is a bias in human information processing. This bias describes human belief revision in which persons over-weigh the prior distribution (base rate) and under-weigh new sample evidence when compared to Bayesian belief-revision.According to the theory, "opinion change is very orderly, and usually proportional to the numbers of Bayes' Theorem - but it is insufficient in amount".".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) label "Conservatism (belief revision)".
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) sameAs m.0j63fgs.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) sameAs Q5163004.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) sameAs Q5163004.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) wasDerivedFrom Conservatism_(belief_revision)?oldid=668939885.
- Conservatism_(belief_revision) isPrimaryTopicOf Conservatism_(belief_revision).